Michael Totten, everyone's favorite "I used to be a liberal..." claims Kerry's pollster predicts a 3 point win for Bush. Kerry's pollster Mellman writes an article for the Hill talking about the difficulties of beating an incumbent, and discusses how a standard election model would predict a Bush win. Of course, he concludes the article with:
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You soon will know whether Kerry’s appeal was strong enough to overcome the incumbent’s strength. I think I will be smiling broadly. But it has been an uphill fight.