Okay, I'm pulling the comments and taking off until Sunday evening or Monday morning. I'll resist the temptation to post a long-winded explanation, and just say that right now the blog is annoying me, perhaps for the first time since I've started it, and that's a sign that I need to put it on pause for a couple of days.
So, get your bloggy goodness elsewhere and I'll see you at the end of the weekend...
...just to add, I didn't turn off the comments because I was annoyed at commenters per se, just wanted to be completely not responsible for this place for a couple of days. The blog is great and I'm very fortunate, but that doesn't preclude a bit of burnout. When one is annoyed one tends to post annoying things. All will return to normal at the end of the weekend...
Friday, November 05, 2004
Blah Blah Bad Bloggers
These stories from horrified news people about evil bloggers posting exit results are really pathetic. First of all, a major clearinghouse for exit polls on election day was the National Review Online magazine. Sure, technically "the Corner" is a blog, but it's the blog under the auspices of a major magazine and written by a gaggle of pundits who are fixtures in the rest of the media.
But, more importantly, all of the bobble heads on the cable networks and the AM radio hosts who were all day had the information, and it clearly influenced their coverage. They may not have given the actual numbers, but you could tell what was going on.
This isn't information which is closely held by a few people, it's common knowledge throughout the entire media world. Mad that the information was leaked? Find the leakers and fire them.
But, more importantly, all of the bobble heads on the cable networks and the AM radio hosts who were all day had the information, and it clearly influenced their coverage. They may not have given the actual numbers, but you could tell what was going on.
This isn't information which is closely held by a few people, it's common knowledge throughout the entire media world. Mad that the information was leaked? Find the leakers and fire them.
Good Jobs Number
On the surface, though it appears to be largely hurricane-related construction and other work.
Unemployment rate's up a tick, to 5.5% which is probably the big news -- not because it's a significant increase in the number of unemployed, but because there's a significant increase in the size of the labor force even as the number of long term unemployed continue to increase...
Unemployment rate's up a tick, to 5.5% which is probably the big news -- not because it's a significant increase in the number of unemployed, but because there's a significant increase in the size of the labor force even as the number of long term unemployed continue to increase...
Man Date Clarification
Ah, Greg Mitchell explains what all this Man Date talk is really about.
A New York Times reporter actually wrote "Mr. Bush no longer has to pretend that he possesses a clear electoral mandate. Because for the first time in his presidency, he can argue that he has the real thing."
Wow. 51-48=mandate. They sure do lower the bar for jr.
A New York Times reporter actually wrote "Mr. Bush no longer has to pretend that he possesses a clear electoral mandate. Because for the first time in his presidency, he can argue that he has the real thing."
Wow. 51-48=mandate. They sure do lower the bar for jr.
We're All Keynesians Now
The WaPo has an article about the sliding dollar. Here's the basics:
The dollar decline isn't necessarily "good" or "bad" in and of itself, unless you're a fan of European vacations. Lowers your purchasing power, but also raises demand for exports, assuming we still have anything left to export. It's more symptom than cause, really, and isn't necessarily something to be alarmed about, as long as it doesn't happen suddenly.
But, I was struck by this paragraph in the article:
This is a fascinating passage. He's arguing deficit reduction plans will reduce aggregate demand, and therefore spending on imports, and that's a good thing. In other words, the president's policies are great because they'll reduce the trade deficit by making us all poorer?
This is a basic simple short run Keynesian argument - increase taxes/reduce spending and demand/output fall. But, it isn't the kind of argument Bush administration officials usually make (unless they're justifying tax cuts to increase employment after their other justifications disappear). It isn't the kind of argument sensible people really make over a 5 year time horizon. It isn't an argument that actually makes sense unless the guy is promising recession.
weird.
Though, this passage at the end is really the kicker:
And nor should we.
...jobs report out soon.
-
The dollar continued its decline in global currency markets yesterday, intensifying worries among some economists that mounting U.S. budget and trade deficits could send the U.S. currency into a tailspin.
But John B. Taylor, the Treasury undersecretary for international affairs, defended the Bush administration view that the deficits pose no danger of a dollar collapse. He issued a detailed rebuttal of what he called "scare stories."
The dollar fell yesterday to within a fraction of a cent of its all-time low against the euro of $1.2930 , trading as low as $1.2898 before rallying slightly to close at $1.2867. It fell modestly against the Japanese yen, and continued a sharp slide against the Canadian dollar, which rose to 83 U.S. cents yesterday for the first time in 12 years.
It was the second straight day that the dollar has fallen despite a surge in the stock market, continuing a trend that began in early October when it started slipping against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners. The declined rekindled the fears of some analysts that the dollar could be headed for a severe sell-off unless the White House and Congress make a major effort to shrink the budget gap.
"As the dust settles after the U.S. elections, the one theme that is developing is the growing recognition [in the markets] of the need for more dollar depreciation," economists at J.P. Morgan told clients yesterday, citing as one major reason the likelihood that "there will be no serious new policies to trim the U.S. budget deficit."
The dollar decline isn't necessarily "good" or "bad" in and of itself, unless you're a fan of European vacations. Lowers your purchasing power, but also raises demand for exports, assuming we still have anything left to export. It's more symptom than cause, really, and isn't necessarily something to be alarmed about, as long as it doesn't happen suddenly.
But, I was struck by this paragraph in the article:
-
Taylor said administration policies already in place will help shrink the trade deficit. One is President Bush's pledge to cut the budget deficit in half, as a percentage of the U.S. gross domestic product, by 2009. That would decrease the trade deficit because lower government spending or higher taxes would reduce the amount of money consumers spend on imported goods.
This is a fascinating passage. He's arguing deficit reduction plans will reduce aggregate demand, and therefore spending on imports, and that's a good thing. In other words, the president's policies are great because they'll reduce the trade deficit by making us all poorer?
This is a basic simple short run Keynesian argument - increase taxes/reduce spending and demand/output fall. But, it isn't the kind of argument Bush administration officials usually make (unless they're justifying tax cuts to increase employment after their other justifications disappear). It isn't the kind of argument sensible people really make over a 5 year time horizon. It isn't an argument that actually makes sense unless the guy is promising recession.
weird.
Though, this passage at the end is really the kicker:
-
President Bush's news conference yesterday did little to lessen concerns over the deficits, Wall Street analysts and currency traders said. Bush simultaneously promised not to raise taxes under the guise of tax simplification, to pursue a costly restructuring of Social Security and to cut the budget deficit in half by 2009.
The currency markets aren't buying it, said William G. Gale, an economist at the Brookings Institution.
And nor should we.
...jobs report out soon.
Opportunity
cable ratings from drudge:
CNN's management believes they need to move farther right to steal Fox's viewers. MSNBC's management thinks they need to stay right to gain viewers who think CNN is too liberal. Of course, the only thing even coming close to resembling a liberal is Olbermann, who is hardly a partisan.
Both have an opportunity. Will either recognize it? Doubtful... in part, because neither company, Time Warner and General Electic, makes decisions purely on what is profitable for their cable news network subdivisions...
-
FOXNEWS O'REILLY 4.5 [SHARE]
FOXNEWS HANNITY/COLMES 4.0
FOXNEWS SHEP SMITH 2.7
FOXNEWS GRETA 2.4
CNN LARRY KING 1.5
CNN ZAHN 1.2
CNN AARON BROWN 1.2
CNN COOPER 0.9
MSNBC HARDBALL 0.8
MSNBC OLBERMANN 0.6
MSNBC SCARBOROUGH 0.7
CNN's management believes they need to move farther right to steal Fox's viewers. MSNBC's management thinks they need to stay right to gain viewers who think CNN is too liberal. Of course, the only thing even coming close to resembling a liberal is Olbermann, who is hardly a partisan.
Both have an opportunity. Will either recognize it? Doubtful... in part, because neither company, Time Warner and General Electic, makes decisions purely on what is profitable for their cable news network subdivisions...
Thursday, November 04, 2004
What to Do
As I briefly talked about on the Majority Report tonight, obviously people really want to know what they can do. Most people aren't ready to quit, and they want to keep fighting.
But, the truth is there isn't all that much that can be done between now and inauguration day. Of course, the Republican Beast will not sleep during that time, but there's a limit to what can be done in the meantime. Besides, it's the holiday season. Rest a bit. Buy your kids some presents. Relax.
However, 2005 could be an amazing year if we don't sleep through it. We need to continue to support and build the new institutions on the Left. We need to identify candidates for key races as early as possible and build up their war chests. We need to consider how to spend a few hours every now and then - volunteering, writing letters to the editor, gonzo activism, raising money, etc.
The good news is that I think that some key people are starting to recognize the importance of the internet and grass roots more generally. Sadly, after the Dean implosion I think all of what most people learned is that the internet could be a cash cow, and failed to see it as a tool for real world organization, activism, and influence. Hopefully that's going to start to change.
But, the truth is there isn't all that much that can be done between now and inauguration day. Of course, the Republican Beast will not sleep during that time, but there's a limit to what can be done in the meantime. Besides, it's the holiday season. Rest a bit. Buy your kids some presents. Relax.
However, 2005 could be an amazing year if we don't sleep through it. We need to continue to support and build the new institutions on the Left. We need to identify candidates for key races as early as possible and build up their war chests. We need to consider how to spend a few hours every now and then - volunteering, writing letters to the editor, gonzo activism, raising money, etc.
The good news is that I think that some key people are starting to recognize the importance of the internet and grass roots more generally. Sadly, after the Dean implosion I think all of what most people learned is that the internet could be a cash cow, and failed to see it as a tool for real world organization, activism, and influence. Hopefully that's going to start to change.
Radio
On the Majority Report on Air America in a couple of minutes... Will be discussing man dates, movements, red state welfare, etc...
Man Date?
Okay, I admit I haven't had my TV on since Tuesday. And, while I've been reading blogs and getting a bit of news indirectly that way, I haven't really been following the newspapers. But, what's all this stuff about Bush going on a Man Date?
Specter
That didn't take long:
-
Washington, D.C. - Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA) made the following comments today on the judicial confirmation process.
“Contrary to press accounts, I did not warn the President about anything and was very respectful of his Constitutional authority on the appointment of federal judges.
“As the record shows, I have supported every one of President Bush’s nominees in the Judiciary Committee and on the Senate floor. I have never and would never apply any litmus test on the abortion issue and, as the record shows, I have voted to confirm Chief Justice Rehnquist, Justice O’Connor, and Justice Kennedy and led the fight to confirm Justice Thomas.
“I have already sponsored a protocol calling for a Judiciary Committee hearing within thirty days of a nomination, a vote out of Committee thirty days later, and floor action thirty days after that. I am committed to such prompt action by the Committee on all of President Bush’s nominees.
“In light of the repeated filibusters by the Democrats in the last Senate session, I am concerned about a potential repetition of such filibusters. I expect to work well with President Bush in the judicial confirmation process in the years ahead.”
Tax Fairness Act of 2005
In the comments section of my post about "really bad ideas that voters love" someone made a suggestion which was something I had almost included in the post originally. In any case, the person provided the catchy name. I suggest the Democrats first major legislative proposal, complete with press conferences, laser show, hunger strike, whatever, is the "Tax Fairness Act of 2005." This Act would mandate that, within some reasonable margin of error, your state should get as much back from the feds as is sent to them in taxes. It's time to end this kind of geographic welfare!
Current deadbeat states who went for Bush: (those getting >110%+ of their tax money back)
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Idaho
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Utah
Virginia
West Virginia
Wyoming
Non-deadbeat states for Bush:
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Indiana
Nebraska
Nevada
North Carolina
Ohio
Texas
Deadbeat states for Kerry:
Hawaii
Maine
Maryland
Vermont
D.C. (obviously a special case)
Non-debeat states for Kerry:
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
Mass.
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Washington
Wisconsin
[Iowa (not deadbeat), and NM (deadbeat) still not called]
...Look folks, for the record this is a "stupid" idea and not one which either should or will pass. The purpose of it is to:
*Get into the public dialogue the fact that the anti-guvmint Bush-voting states to a great degree prosper to whatever extent they do because of an infusion of money from Kerry-voting states.
*It allows Democrats to run crazy campaign commercials like 'Congressman Elephant voted to give YOUR tax dollars to Wyoming!!!!'
...and yes, people, this post is partially in jest...
Current deadbeat states who went for Bush: (those getting >110%+ of their tax money back)
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Idaho
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Utah
Virginia
West Virginia
Wyoming
Non-deadbeat states for Bush:
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Indiana
Nebraska
Nevada
North Carolina
Ohio
Texas
Deadbeat states for Kerry:
Hawaii
Maine
Maryland
Vermont
D.C. (obviously a special case)
Non-debeat states for Kerry:
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
Mass.
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Washington
Wisconsin
[Iowa (not deadbeat), and NM (deadbeat) still not called]
...Look folks, for the record this is a "stupid" idea and not one which either should or will pass. The purpose of it is to:
*Get into the public dialogue the fact that the anti-guvmint Bush-voting states to a great degree prosper to whatever extent they do because of an infusion of money from Kerry-voting states.
*It allows Democrats to run crazy campaign commercials like 'Congressman Elephant voted to give YOUR tax dollars to Wyoming!!!!'
...and yes, people, this post is partially in jest...
Memo to Democrats
Today Bush said:
Translation: My way or the highway.
Alternate translation: You're either with us or against us.
For Democrats in the Senate:
Any "compromise" you try to achieve on various bills inevitably gets stripped out by DeLay's goons in the conference committee. Amendments should be written as land mines (metaphorical, of course) for the Republicans to trip on, not because any of them will end up being law.
For Democrats in the House and Senate: If you vote for the Republican agenda, you cannot later credibly criticize it. That's just the way it is...
-
I will reach out to every one who shares our goals.
Translation: My way or the highway.
Alternate translation: You're either with us or against us.
For Democrats in the Senate:
Any "compromise" you try to achieve on various bills inevitably gets stripped out by DeLay's goons in the conference committee. Amendments should be written as land mines (metaphorical, of course) for the Republicans to trip on, not because any of them will end up being law.
For Democrats in the House and Senate: If you vote for the Republican agenda, you cannot later credibly criticize it. That's just the way it is...
Will
It's gonna be a crazy four years:
-
PRESIDENT BUSH: Now that I've got the will of the people at my back, I'm going to start enforcing the one-question rule. That was three questions.
...
PRESIDENT BUSH: Again, he violated the one-question rule right off the bat. Obviously you didn't listen to the will of the people.
Best Wishes and Hope for a Speedy Recovery
Link:
-
Elizabeth Edwards, wife of former Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards, was diagnosed with breast cancer the day her husband and Sen. John Kerry conceded the presidential race.
Spokesman David Ginsberg said Mrs. Edwards, 55, discovered a lump in her right breast while on a campaign trip last week. Her family doctor told her Friday that it appeared to be cancerous and advised her to see a specialist when she could.
Arlen Specter's Legacy
I for one don't believe that snarlin' Arlen is going to be strong enough (or care enough) to make a serious attempt to derail anti-choice judicial appointments, no matter what noises to that effect he's making. There's chum in the water right now, and the sharks will swim straight for him if he holds firm (I don't even believe he intends to, but happy to be wrong).
Still, given that this is probably Specter's last term in office, he does have to come to terms with one question -- does he want to be the man responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade? Some legacy that would be.
Still, given that this is probably Specter's last term in office, he does have to come to terms with one question -- does he want to be the man responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade? Some legacy that would be.
Moral Values
Gay Marriage==Slavery:
-
COOPER: But Democrats argue look, John Kerry doesn't support gay marriage. I mean he doesn't want a constitutional amendment about it, but he didn't support gay marriage. Why is it that the Republicans have been able to benefit from that whereas the Democrats did not? Is it simply the question of the constitutional -- the federal amendment?
FALWELL: Well, nobody believes John Kerry on that because his voting record, pro choice, his voting record on the family issues, does -- belies his statement. And the fact that he would not support a federal marriage amendment, it equates in our minds as someone 150 years ago saying I'm personally opposed to slavery, but if my neighbor wants to own one or two that's OK. We don't buy that.
Really Bad Ideas That the Media Loves and Democrats Must Resist
1) "privatizing" Social Security. I don't worry so much about benefits being cut. The upshot of a growing population of old people is that it's a growing populating of old people who vote. But, this will just be the Treasury Looting Act of 2005. Firms will get their fees, funds will be looted, then they'll be bailed out, rinse, repeat...
2) "Medical Savings Accounts." Insurance is about reducing risk and uncertainty. Forcing people to cover their medical costs by hording a big pile of cash they can't spend until they get sick is a just a weird idea. And, it might have the added advantage of destroying the private health insurance market entirely.
3) Tort reform. The "Moron-American Act of 2005." You get what you wish for, I guess.
4) Bankruptcy reform. Oh Lord help us.
5) Enviornment. Well, everything.
6) Tax cuts. Oh, just let them have their goddamn tax cuts. The bond market'll snap like a twig at some point.
2) "Medical Savings Accounts." Insurance is about reducing risk and uncertainty. Forcing people to cover their medical costs by hording a big pile of cash they can't spend until they get sick is a just a weird idea. And, it might have the added advantage of destroying the private health insurance market entirely.
3) Tort reform. The "Moron-American Act of 2005." You get what you wish for, I guess.
4) Bankruptcy reform. Oh Lord help us.
5) Enviornment. Well, everything.
6) Tax cuts. Oh, just let them have their goddamn tax cuts. The bond market'll snap like a twig at some point.
Reid
He's the one. And, after the Daschle debacle there are reasons to want someone from a solid blue state to take the job. But, Nevada is not Kansas and by accounts Reid's a tough cookie, so hopefully things will work out...
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
Myths
One of the myths which is frequently repeated is that when the Supreme Court rules against Roe v. Wade, as it will shortly, that abortion will be a state issue. I've probably repeated this canard myself. Sure, there are states with laws on the books which would immediately be enforceable. But, there's no reason to believe that there wouldn't be a federal law outlawing abortion. Being a resident of Gullyvornia or some other state unlikely to outlaw abortion will probably not prevent your uterus from becoming property of the state.
And, hey, why stop at Roe? The 3+ members of the Wingnuttery Society who are likely to start wearing the black robes in the next few years may find reason to revisit Griswold...
And, hey, why stop at Roe? The 3+ members of the Wingnuttery Society who are likely to start wearing the black robes in the next few years may find reason to revisit Griswold...
Really Bad Ideas That Voters Love
Nick Confessore points out that the Democrats need to be smarter about exploiting the state ballot measure system to help increase turnout. That's obviously a good idea, and I think I have another one. Republicans have always been good at coming up with really bad ideas which are very popular with voters (say, term limits), and making it a central campaign issue. Most of these things never actually become law, because they're actually really horrible, but they're useful for scoring points.
I think the Democrats need to come up with a few of these. Get creative...
I think the Democrats need to come up with a few of these. Get creative...
The Born Again President
Josh Marshall is correct here. This election is not an opportunity for George Bush to have a "do over." It does not somehow absolve him of his past sins, letting him start again with a clean slate. The current state of affairs, both domestic and international, is his responsibility.
Looking Forward -- The Media
After the 2000 election, our news media decided, strangely, that after he was selected president by a highly questionable court action and losing the popular vote, that for the good of the country they needed to lay off the new president. The incredible creativity required to obtain camera shots which entirely obscured the inauguration day protests was truly impressive. The "traditional" 100 day honeymoon, which is only ever traditional for Republicans, lasted all the way until early September, and we know what happened after that.
And, even as a troubled close election was an excuse to be nice to their new leader, we can expect a less-close and less-troubled election will provide an excuse for them to do the same this time.
And, even as a troubled close election was an excuse to be nice to their new leader, we can expect a less-close and less-troubled election will provide an excuse for them to do the same this time.
George Bush's America
Reading the various commentary and chatting with a few people I've come to a couple of realizations which I think we all need to come to terms with. First, as Eric Alterman puts it, there are more of "them" than "us" right now. The people who voted George Bush and the Republicans into office this year didn't do so because they were conned by a right wing asshole posing as a compassionate centrist. They did so precisely because he is a right wing asshole. Yes, the modern Republican party consists of nasty bigots and liars and the media rarely bothers to point out just how nasty they are (all the talking heads talking about the role of "moral values" in the election know that what that really means is "fag hating," but they won't say it). But, don't be fooled - people know what they voted for.
And, secondly, as the Bull Moose says (though I disagree with other aspects of his commentary):
This is exactly right. Democrats and liberals have spent too many years running away from the Right's caricature of what it means to be a liberal that they've managed to obliterate from the public consciousness any coherent concrete narrative. It isn't as many seem to think about precisely where on the Left/Right spectrum a candidate or the Party chooses to position itself. I'm not arguing that Democrats need to be "more liberal" or "less liberal" or anything like that it all. But, they have to be something other than "not Republicans."
There's a lot of money sloshing around on our side these days, and that's good. I hope, as Josh Marshall discusses, that neither the generosity of wealthy benefactors nor the flood of small money donations from the less-than-rich crowd stops flowing to the new infrastructure we're creating. But, I'm increasingly getting the sense that part of the problem is that at the moment it isn't clear just what this infrastructure is supposed to be supporting. We need to figure out just what our ideas and message are, and then the infrastructure will help us project them into the public mind.
And, secondly, as the Bull Moose says (though I disagree with other aspects of his commentary):
-
Organization is fine - ideas and message are far superior.
This is exactly right. Democrats and liberals have spent too many years running away from the Right's caricature of what it means to be a liberal that they've managed to obliterate from the public consciousness any coherent concrete narrative. It isn't as many seem to think about precisely where on the Left/Right spectrum a candidate or the Party chooses to position itself. I'm not arguing that Democrats need to be "more liberal" or "less liberal" or anything like that it all. But, they have to be something other than "not Republicans."
There's a lot of money sloshing around on our side these days, and that's good. I hope, as Josh Marshall discusses, that neither the generosity of wealthy benefactors nor the flood of small money donations from the less-than-rich crowd stops flowing to the new infrastructure we're creating. But, I'm increasingly getting the sense that part of the problem is that at the moment it isn't clear just what this infrastructure is supposed to be supporting. We need to figure out just what our ideas and message are, and then the infrastructure will help us project them into the public mind.
Onward
I'm not all that interested in election post-mortems because it isn't important. People tend to take a loss like this as "proof" that their personal pet peeve about the campaign was correct, and too much discussion of it reinforces the tendency to try to keep trying to fight the last campaign. Elections are not deterministic things, and the binary nature of their outcomes tends to obscure the underlying complexity. What matters isn't what was done wrong, but what needs to be done right for the '06 elections.
Durbin
If he wants it, the Minority Leader job should be his. I like Harry Reid a lot, but I think we should learn from recent mistakes.
...there are of course plenty of other qualified candidates as well -- I'm basing this suggestion on media reports on who the likely contenders are...
...there are of course plenty of other qualified candidates as well -- I'm basing this suggestion on media reports on who the likely contenders are...
Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Another Open Thread
I can't keep up with up-to-date results any faster than the media can, so I won't really try. Chat away...
Open Thread
I'll be on Air America soon. Discuss the latest results...
...or maybe in a couple of minutes. Some guy named Rick Hertzberg I've never heard of is apparently more important than me. ;)
Get yer Ohio results here...
...or maybe in a couple of minutes. Some guy named Rick Hertzberg I've never heard of is apparently more important than me. ;)
Get yer Ohio results here...
Republicans Want Polls To Stay Open Longer
Trying to extend hours in Bedford, New Hampshire... more info when I get it.
Wingnuttery
So, after getting put on some media contact email list I received probably a thousand emails informing me that Kerry was the greatest thing since sliced bread following the debates.
Now, sadly, I've made it onto a conservative media email list and people are writing me over and over telling me they're outraged about the Gropinator and Hollywood supporting killing babies for stem cell research...oy.
Now, sadly, I've made it onto a conservative media email list and people are writing me over and over telling me they're outraged about the Gropinator and Hollywood supporting killing babies for stem cell research...oy.
Zogby Predicts Kerry
311-213, with Nevada and Colorado too close to call....
(note that this kind of thing and the exit polls are posted for fun and excitement and not because we should necessarily believe them...)
(note that this kind of thing and the exit polls are posted for fun and excitement and not because we should necessarily believe them...)
The Internets Are Breaking
I'm hesitant to link to anything right now because servers are self-destructing everywhere it seems. But, Kos (who is still up) has fresh exit poll numbers from Slate (which is, for me at least, giving a "server busy") message.
NV CO NC PA OH FL MI NM WI
Kerry 48 46 49 54 50 50 51 50 51
Bush 50 53 51 45 49 49 47 48 46
NV CO NC PA OH FL MI NM WI
Kerry 48 46 49 54 50 50 51 50 51
Bush 50 53 51 45 49 49 47 48 46
Hoeffel Needs People at 5th and Market
If anyone can get there like now to hold signs and cheer in front of KYW studios...
Kerry Carnival
It's tough to be a Republican in Philly today. It's like a Kerry Theme Park in center city. Signs plastered everywhere. Armies of volunteers with signs and shirts and buttons and stickers everywhere. "Honk for Kerry" groups on many street corners.
Monitoring the Projections
My colleagues at Media Matters are going to be monitoring all of the major media outlets tonight to record the exact time that each calls the various states. The main purpose of doing this is to keep an accurate record of the timing of projections in case of later shenanigans. But, it'll also provide for a handy one stop place to check the results.
Grid is here.
Grid is here.
Exit Polls
MyDD.com has them - though his server is overloaded so I'll remove the link.
Take with grain of salt.
AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41
Take with grain of salt.
Troubles in Florida
From CNN:
(transcribed by voxpopgirl)
-
Gary Tuchman: Now, there are some people concerned about these machines, that they don't give you receipts. Only in Nevada you get a receipt but you don't get to keep it but you see your vote on a receipt paper, here you don't.
Now, with us right now is a woman by the name of Suzanne Goldstein who voted the other day during the early voting process with one of the touchscreen machines, and you tell me you wanted to vote for John Kerry. Tell me what happened."
Suzanne Goldstein: "That's correct. When I went in on wed supervisor elections; I checked John Kerry, Betty castor and the Democratic slate. When i came to the last page which was the review screen, I was horrified when I saw that every choice I made had come up incorrect and just the opposite.
Gary Tuchman: So, you're saying that you voted for Kerry for President, but on the view screen, which is that last place you look before you tabulate your vote, it said George W. Bush?
Suzanne Goldstein: It did, it did.
Gary Tuchman: What did you do?
Suzanne Goldstein: So, what I did was, my husband nearby and we called poll workers, clerks. They came over and at that point they wanted to try to review. And I didn't want them to touch it.
They first were telling me that I probably made a mistake, maybe I didn't know what I was doing.... so finally, I asked for an attorney from outside. So someone did come in, and at that point we went back, and at that point, sure enough, I had voted correctly.
Gary Tuchman: What happened to the machine?
Suzanne Goldstein: Umm, they didn't know. They really didn't know what --
Gary Tuchman: -- did you get to vote?
Susan Goldstein: I did get to vote but I stopped the voting process on that machine, requested for it to be taken away and I voted on the next machine.
Gary Tuchman: Susan, thanks for joining us. We should tell you that operatives at elections office at Talllahassee that thera are some problems ocassionally but there are millions of votes on these machines and they believe these machines are performing very reliably. Kyra, back to you.
(transcribed by voxpopgirl)
Text of Draft Call
- The draft. The Democrats haven't pledged a thing. What are the Democrats hiding? Is the draft really their secret plan. Only the Democrats have proposed the possibility of a draft in this campaign. On Election Day vote republican and say no to the draft. Paid for by the Republican National Committee. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate committee. On the web at www.gop.com.
Projection. We've got busloads of college students out there voting on the draft issue right now and the Republicans are desperate to con them...
...link to audio.
Exit Polls
The first round will be leaked soon. With any luck they'll be leaked to me too. But, it's important to remember that a) exit polls posted on right wing sites are likely bullshit. And, b) even if they're "accurate" they're still bullshit, because exit polls always favor Republican voters in the AM...
Hacktackular
Do people who post on Instapundit's site ever read what they link to?
Michael Totten, everyone's favorite "I used to be a liberal..." claims Kerry's pollster predicts a 3 point win for Bush. Kerry's pollster Mellman writes an article for the Hill talking about the difficulties of beating an incumbent, and discusses how a standard election model would predict a Bush win. Of course, he concludes the article with:
Michael Totten, everyone's favorite "I used to be a liberal..." claims Kerry's pollster predicts a 3 point win for Bush. Kerry's pollster Mellman writes an article for the Hill talking about the difficulties of beating an incumbent, and discusses how a standard election model would predict a Bush win. Of course, he concludes the article with:
-
You soon will know whether Kerry’s appeal was strong enough to overcome the incumbent’s strength. I think I will be smiling broadly. But it has been an uphill fight.
Philly Volunteers Needed
I'm hearing reports of alternate language sample ballots listing "kerry/specter" in parts of Philly.
Also, the Hoeffel campaign needs volunteers in NE Philly. Stop by the headquartersif you can at 1528 Walnut St, Suite 950 Philadelphia and then head to Ward 56 locations.
Also, the Hoeffel campaign needs volunteers in NE Philly. Stop by the headquarters
Done
First time I've ever had to wait in a nontrivial line to vote. Was voter #166. One voter had a registration card but wasn't on the list, and that was being sorted out, but otherwise things went smoothly...
Monday, November 01, 2004
45%
This is rather surprising, even to me. 45% of people don't believe Bush won legitimately in 2000.
And, while I'm linking to David Neiwert, he's running a thug watch.
And, while I'm linking to David Neiwert, he's running a thug watch.
Shift
Weird. Jeff Greenfield was suddenly laying the ground for a Kerry victory.
...holy crap. Bill "AEI" Schneider just called Bush "intellectually unprepared" and said Kerry looked "more presidential."
There are days I think that all of these things are decided by a committee of freemasons in a dark dungeon somewhere...
mars?
...holy crap. Bill "AEI" Schneider just called Bush "intellectually unprepared" and said Kerry looked "more presidential."
There are days I think that all of these things are decided by a committee of freemasons in a dark dungeon somewhere...
mars?
Funny Monkeys
I'd wondered what happened to this little story on Drudge. It didn't sound quite right, and then it magically disappeared...
Remember folks, it's not the sex, it's the lying. Now, the real question, should our press care, is did they lie to Schwarzkopf too or is Schwarzkopf a liar?
-
In 11th Hour Gambit, RNC Tries Hoodwinking Press: Splices DNC Call and Makes False Accusations
Washington DC - Today, the Republican National Committee tried to falsely accuse the Democratic National Committee of claiming the endorsement of General Schwarzkopf. In fact, the RNC spliced a DNC recorded telephone call by General Merrill "Tony" McPeak, urging voters to vote for John Kerry, and attempted to peddle the doctored audio file to the press.
In response, DNC Communications Director Jano Cabrera issued the following statement:
"This is a desperate, pathetic, 11th hour dirty trick by the Republicans. In an effort to gin up a last minute media controversy and smear the Democrats, the Republicans intentionally spliced a recorded call by Four Star General 'Tony' McPeak and tried to peddle it to the press. This type of dishonesty is a fitting end to George W. Bush's failed Presidency, a Presidency that unfortunately for the American people, was also defined by deceit and deception."
General McPeak’s recorded telephone call is available for download at:
link
Transcript of General McPeak’s call:
Hi, I'm General Tony McPeak and as Chief of the air force during the first Gulf War, I worked closely with Colin Powell and Norm Schwarzkopf. In 2000, I voted for George W. Bush. This year I'm voting for John Kerry. George Bush took his eye off the ball and the war on terror and took us into a poorly planned war in Iraq, letting Al Qaeda, the people responsible for September 11th attack on us, regroup. John Kerry has a real plan to make the military stronger and to go after the terrorists wherever they hide. On November 2 we need to vote for change, a vote for John Kerry.
Remember folks, it's not the sex, it's the lying. Now, the real question, should our press care, is did they lie to Schwarzkopf too or is Schwarzkopf a liar?
Wolcott
Indeed:
-
Don't let anyone con you that New Yorkers are so tough, resilient, unphased by adversity; practically everyone I know is a neurotic basket case over this election, ready to call their mothers to see if they can have their old womb back should Bush win. My plan is, If Bush wins, I'm going to allot myself 48 hours to mope and dread--okay, 72--okay, maybe 96--but 96 tops--but after that it'll be time to get on mental war footing. If Kerry wins, do you think conservative Republicans are going to take to their beds for soul-searching? They have no souls to search, most of them. No, they'll be scheming to ratfuck a Kerry presidency, and if history is a reliable guide they'll have allies in the elite media who can't wait to start snarking over Teresa as First Lady and the timidity of Kerry's cabinet picks, whatever. Reporters and pundits who've paid scant attention to the casualties and carnage in Iraq will suddenly find their consciences tucked away in a file drawer, and start wondering when Kerry will show the strength and resolve we expect from our leaders. They will hound him about Bin Laden in ways they never did Bush.
Florida Follies
Link:
And, what happens when the memory cards on the touch screen machines start failing? Houston, we have a problem...
-
About 13,000 ballots were removed from an early-voting site in Daytona Beach, Fla., Monday and rushed to a secure vault in Deland after an optical scan machine failed, according to Local 6 News.
Local 6 News has learned that a memory card, on the machine failed and all 13,000 votes must be recounted.
A computer error is to blame for the failure of the memory card which records the voting data, Local 6 News reported.
When the error was discovered Monday, representatives from both parties were notified.
Both sides then witnessed the removal of the ballots and their storage in the vault.
And, what happens when the memory cards on the touch screen machines start failing? Houston, we have a problem...
Joe Lockhart - Illiterate Republican?
Someone has been sending out this email, from a spoofed @johnkerry.com email address claiming to be Joe Lockhart:
-
To all Amercans:
We as Democrats owe it to our great country to vote for the most qualified and honest man for the job of Chief of Staffand President of the United States.
With that in mind we the Democrats of Washington D.C. ask that you, the American people vote for George W. Bush for President of the United States.
Why? Because The Encumbent President has pulled this great country together in times of war, terrorist attacks and recession.
After many years of loyal service to Mr. John Kerry and one of his closest aides, I can’t in good consciousness support him any longers.
Vote Republican on November 2nd …. Vote Bush.
Thank you,
Joe Lockhart
President for Life
Whatever happens tomorrow, we should all remember that it definitely didn't have to be this way. I suppose us liberals should be thankful, in some ways, that the Bush administration was unable to overcome its natural instinct to be divisive and cruel. With a bit of a softer edge, and even a smidgen of competence about Iraq , the Bush administration could have, policy wise, about 99.9999% of what they achieved and still be sitting at 60% approval ratings. They could have had their tax cuts and their war and whatever else and still be riding high on the post-9/11 support. Actually, they probably could've managed to achieve even more of their domestic agenda if they'd bothered to try very hard.
About this, at least (aside from the incompetence in Iraq part), we can be thankful.
About this, at least (aside from the incompetence in Iraq part), we can be thankful.
Landslide!
Well, I've already made my basic election prediction but I wouldn't be a proper pundit if I didn't cover all bases and acknowledge other possibilities. I do think there is a possibility that all our hopes and dreams are not misplaced and that Kerry will in fact do much better than expected. Steve Soto notes that the Gallup poll is still heavily oversampling Republicans, even as it shows a Kerry tie.
Iraq
Tom Schaller reminds us of something important:
The important thing here is just how frequently our media has bought into the Bush administration's implicit "light at the end of the tunnel" arguments regarding Iraq. They have been forever arguing that "things will get better when..." which the media tends to parrot and then quickly forget when things actually don't get better - and, in fact, they keep getting worse. Not a lot worse as measured by the number of US casualties (though perhaps a lot worse in other ways), but noetheless worse.
Ah, I remember when they jumped on Howard Dean for ruining their little party when he dared to point out that capturing Saddam wouldn't make the U.S. any safer. The more (but still hackish) honest pundits retreated to the criticism that "well, sure, it may not make Americans at home any safer but it'll make our troops WHO ARE Americans [well, some aren't, but...] safer and how dare that nasty Hoho say otherwise." Wrong again.
-
Remember, the fatality and casualty rates are higher in 2004 than 2003; higher since Hussein's capture than before; higher since "sovereignty" was turned over on June 28 than before. You can slice and dice the data anyway you choose, but it's not progress.
The important thing here is just how frequently our media has bought into the Bush administration's implicit "light at the end of the tunnel" arguments regarding Iraq. They have been forever arguing that "things will get better when..." which the media tends to parrot and then quickly forget when things actually don't get better - and, in fact, they keep getting worse. Not a lot worse as measured by the number of US casualties (though perhaps a lot worse in other ways), but noetheless worse.
Ah, I remember when they jumped on Howard Dean for ruining their little party when he dared to point out that capturing Saddam wouldn't make the U.S. any safer. The more (but still hackish) honest pundits retreated to the criticism that "well, sure, it may not make Americans at home any safer but it'll make our troops WHO ARE Americans [well, some aren't, but...] safer and how dare that nasty Hoho say otherwise." Wrong again.
Celebration or Wake
Just in case you aren't completely sick of all of this, there's an exciting event on Nov. 3 here in Philadelphia:
7:30 at the Pen and Pencil Club, 1522 Latimer.
We can either talk about how lefty blogs propelled Kerry to an overwhelming win, or about how the DNC has failed us yet again. Or, if there's no definitive outcome tomorrow we can have a mass suicide event.
...oh, and regarding Tuesday's Drinking Liberally -- as far as I can tell the organizers and many of the regulars will be involved in election day activities (seems like most of the people who come are lawyers and so a lot of people will be offering legal help, etc...). I personally will be home babysitting the blog or out surveying the scene (and definitely home once the polls start closing). If there are a bunch of Philadelphia area folks who wish to congregate at Ten Stone tomorrow feel free...
-
All of a sudden, bloggers are everywhere - overrunning the political conventions, breaking stories like the "60 Minutes" scandal. On the day after the election, we'll ask if they're journalists...or something else and explore how much influence they had on the race for the White House. Philadelphia is a blogging hotbed. And on Nov. 3, we'll have a lively Q and A with several of them, including Atrios (a Center City economist named Duncan Black), whose blog called Eschaton gets over 100,000 hits a day and is one of the most popular political sites on the Web; James M. Capozzola of the influential Philadelphia blog, the Rittenhouse Review, and former Delco journalist and Suburban Guerrilla Susie Madrak, whose anger at the Bush White House sent her into the blogosphere. Will Bunch of the Daily News, who started blogging in late August with his site currently called Campaign Extra!, will be the moderator.
7:30 at the Pen and Pencil Club, 1522 Latimer.
We can either talk about how lefty blogs propelled Kerry to an overwhelming win, or about how the DNC has failed us yet again. Or, if there's no definitive outcome tomorrow we can have a mass suicide event.
...oh, and regarding Tuesday's Drinking Liberally -- as far as I can tell the organizers and many of the regulars will be involved in election day activities (seems like most of the people who come are lawyers and so a lot of people will be offering legal help, etc...). I personally will be home babysitting the blog or out surveying the scene (and definitely home once the polls start closing). If there are a bunch of Philadelphia area folks who wish to congregate at Ten Stone tomorrow feel free...
Dear Tim Russsert
Your use of a whiteboard in 2000 was not the culturally iconic moment you've convinced yourself that it was. Resurrecting it now makes you look even more foolish than you did then. Have the geniuses at General Electric build you something which isn't completely unreadable under studio lights.
Love,
Atrios
Love,
Atrios
More Florida Shenanigans
This is more amusing than disgusting, but it shows the degree to which the Republican foot soldiers are willing to engage in deception.
Sunday, October 31, 2004
Monkey Mail
Funny:
In reference to this, presumably.
Ms. Harrington's email can be found at georgewbush.com site as well as the University of Toledo Young Republicans site...
-
In reference to your website, I am here to tell you to take
down the e-mail address of Megan Harrington. That is
invasion of privacy, and defamation, and if it is not off in
twenty-fours hours, the proper authorities will be contacted
to remove your website. To use someone's e-mail without
their reference is invasion of privacy, and I hope you
realize that.
In reference to this, presumably.
Ms. Harrington's email can be found at georgewbush.com site as well as the University of Toledo Young Republicans site...
Bush Haters
Link:
-
Lisa Dupler, a 33-year-old from Columbus, held up a rainbow-striped John Kerry sign outside the Nationwide Arena on Friday, as Republicans streamed out after being rallied by George W. Bush and Arnold Schwarzenegger. A thickset woman with very short, dark hair, Dupler was silent and barely flinched as people passing her hissed "faggot" into her ear. An old lady looked at her and said, "You people are sick!" A kid who looked to be about 10 or 11 affected a limp wrist and mincing voice and said, "Oh, I'm gay." Rather than restraining him, his squat mother guffawed and then turned to Dupler and sneered, "Why don't you go marry your girlfriend?" Encouraged, her son yelled, "We don't want faggots in the White House!"
The throngs of Republicans were pumped after seeing the president and the action hero. But there was an angry edge to their elation. They shrieked at the dozen or so protesters standing on the concrete plaza outside the auditorium. "Kerry's a terrorist!" yelled a stocky kid in baggy jeans and braces. "Communists for Kerry! Go back to Russia," someone else screamed. Many of them took up the chant "Kerry sucks"; old women and teenage boys shouting with equal ferocity.
Something's Coming
-
Could it be? Yes, it could.
Something's coming, something good,
If I can wait!
Something's coming, I don't know what it is,
But it is
Gonna be great!
With a click, with a shock,
Phone'll jingle, door'll knock,
Open the latch!
Something's coming, don't know when, but it's soon;
Catch the moon,
One-handed catch!
Around the corner,
Or whistling down the river,
Come on, deliver
To me!
Will it be? Yes, it will.
Maybe just by holding still,
It'll be there!
Big Media Matt says he has lots of second hand, and now first hand, anecdotal evidence that Democrats are really mobilized now. As a swing state resident living in an urban area, I can't look out my window without seeing people with clipboards walking down the street. Lots of people I know talk about their out of state friends coming to town. I hear, though I don't know, that the operation in 'burbs is quite impressive too. I hope so.
Whatever happens this election, we will have achieved something -- the mobilization of the left of center crowd to do... something. Will all this voter registration/canvassing/GOTV efforts on Tuesday put us over the top? I'm not sure. I think we'll win, but no one can be sure. But, at the very least I think the seeds of... something... have been planted.
November Surprise?
A rumor from a reliable source suggests that there's a good chance that Tommy Thompson is set to announce that drug reimportation from Canada will be fully legalized.
I'm sure that, if this happens, it'll be a big "read the fine print" bait and switch.
Treat as rumor until confirmed, presumably at a 10AM or so press conference...
...or, more generally, it could be some other major senior pandering drug thing...
...just to add, this is *rumor* as I said. I wouldn't publish unless I thought it was a plausible rumor, but that doesn't mean it's a *true* rumor. I normally don't traffic in too many unconfirmed things, but this close to the election there's value in putting this stuff out there before the fact.
I'm sure that, if this happens, it'll be a big "read the fine print" bait and switch.
Treat as rumor until confirmed, presumably at a 10AM or so press conference...
...or, more generally, it could be some other major senior pandering drug thing...
...just to add, this is *rumor* as I said. I wouldn't publish unless I thought it was a plausible rumor, but that doesn't mean it's a *true* rumor. I normally don't traffic in too many unconfirmed things, but this close to the election there's value in putting this stuff out there before the fact.
Et Tu, Colin?
Link:
I'm sure this was an authorized leak, though I no longer have any idea what game the cowardly Colin thinks he's playing.
-
Even Secretary of State Colin Powell, a former general who stays in touch with the Joint Chiefs, has acknowledged this privately to friends in recent weeks, NEWSWEEK has learned. The insurgents have effectively created a reign of terror throughout the country, killing thousands, driving Iraqi elites and technocrats into exile and scaring foreigners out. "Things are getting really bad," a senior Iraqi official in interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's government told NEWSWEEK last week. "The initiative is in [the insurgents'] hands right now. This approach of being lenient and accommodating has really backfired. They see this as weakness."
I'm sure this was an authorized leak, though I no longer have any idea what game the cowardly Colin thinks he's playing.
Statement From 'Jersey Girls' on Bin Laden Video
-
We cried when we saw the tape on Friday of Osama Bin Laden. He's tanned and healthy. He does not look desperate or scared. He does not look like a man on the run.
Three years ago, President Bush promised us he would capture Osama Bin Laden--Dead or Alive. He didn't do that.
The man that murdered our husbands, is back terrorizing our country again. The videotape of him has brought us back to 9/11. We feel threatened. We feel vulnerable. We are scared.
Our question to President Bush is: Why didn't you catch him when you promised us you would? Why is this mass murderer--this madman-- still out there making videotapes and terrorizing our country three years after you promised our country that you would make us safe from him? President Bush, why cant you keep us safe from this madmen?
Kristen Breitweiser and Monica Gabrielle
Shenanigans Continue
Even after being busted, the thugs in West Virginia are still at it:
-
PRESS RELEASE
For Immediate Release
Contact: Stephen Skinner
sgskinner@mac.com
REPUBLICAN PARTY DECEIVING VOTERS IN WEST VIRGINIA
Charles Town, W.V., Oct . 31, 2004 – Democratic leaders in one of the
nation’s most hotly-contested battleground states are receiving reports
of voter suppression activities that can be traced back to the
Republican Party. The suppression activities have continued despite
warnings from officials in Berkeley and Jefferson Counties.
“These phone calls are outrageous and illegal,” says Michael Cassell,
Chairman of the Jefferson County Democratic Party. “They are designed
to suppress the vote for John Kerry and all democrats. The republicans
were warned before, but they continue to break the law”
In mid-October, John Smalls, County Clerk in Berkeley County, W.V.,
sent a letter to the Eastern Panhandle Republican Party about phone
calls that were traced back to its headquarters. The calls made to
Democrats in this tri-county area 60 miles northwest of Washington,
D.C., informed Democratic voters they were either not registered at
all, or would not be able to vote on election day.
At that time, Republican Party spokesperson Mary Diamond admitted that
some mistakes may have been made. She said the calls were made to
determine if people were registered to vote.
When he learned of the activities in neighboring Berkeley County, John
Ott, the top election official in Jefferson County stated, “This is an
improper act.” He encouraged voters to contact authorities if they
receive improper phone calls.
In the last few days, suppression activities have spread to Jefferson
County. Several voters have received phone calls telling them that
they are not registered despite the fact that they are.
“These calls are being made by people who claim they are calling from
Democratic headquarters in Charles Town,” Cassell said. “They trick
voters into revealing personal information, and then tell them they
cannot vote.”
“He told me I was not a registered voter,” said Bill Jackson of Charles
Town, of the phone call he received. “Later when I found out that he
was not calling from Democratic headquarters, I was outraged. I wonder
how many other voters have gotten these calls.”
“This is exactly the kind of dirty trick Republicans tried in Florida
four years ago.” Cassell says. “I’m calling on the US Attorney to
prosecute these illegal phone calls. ”
Land's End Founder Runs Full Page anti-Bush Ad
Link.
Apparently a longtime Republican.
You can buy fine Land's End merchandise here. Or don't. They're now owned by Sears. Or do, Comer is still the Chairman. I'm so confused.
Apparently a longtime Republican.
Fox News Tracking
Two day sample, Friday and Saturday. 46-46 likely voters (kerry up 1 among RV). Same poll had Bush up by 5 on Friday and up by 2 yesterday...
Bastards
More Republican election shenanigans. NBC had a report this morning saying they're also going to challenge a bunch of new registrations in West Philadelphia, too, but I can't find an article about that.
...just to clear something up - of course there are some fake voter registrations out there. Any time you have paid voter registration workers there's a decent chance you're going to get some made up cards, as is the case with paid petition signature gatherers. But, in these situations voter registration fraud has nothing to do with actual voter fraud or any intent to commit voter fraud. No one will try to vote as "Mickey Mouse."
The Republicans are doing everything possible to cast as wide a net as they can to a) plant doubt about the accuracy of voting b) call the Democrats the party of "voter fraud" c) slow down the voting as much as possible in urban areas because they don't like it when black people vote and d) set the stage for legal challenges after the fact. With a little luck they may manage to find an actual incident of voter fraud or two on election day, and you can bet that's all we'll hear about.
Make sure to check out the voting page at eriposte and Jack Hitt's This American Life piece. Hitt had the Republicans send him the "worst" stuff they had, and here's what he got:
...just to clear something up - of course there are some fake voter registrations out there. Any time you have paid voter registration workers there's a decent chance you're going to get some made up cards, as is the case with paid petition signature gatherers. But, in these situations voter registration fraud has nothing to do with actual voter fraud or any intent to commit voter fraud. No one will try to vote as "Mickey Mouse."
The Republicans are doing everything possible to cast as wide a net as they can to a) plant doubt about the accuracy of voting b) call the Democrats the party of "voter fraud" c) slow down the voting as much as possible in urban areas because they don't like it when black people vote and d) set the stage for legal challenges after the fact. With a little luck they may manage to find an actual incident of voter fraud or two on election day, and you can bet that's all we'll hear about.
Make sure to check out the voting page at eriposte and Jack Hitt's This American Life piece. Hitt had the Republicans send him the "worst" stuff they had, and here's what he got:
-
He sent me a copy. It's all newspaper clips, many of them unverified charges. There are a few that check out. There really was, for example, this white guy working for an outfit affiliated with the NAACP, who registered voters under names like Mary Poppins and Jeffrey Dahmer, and it's true, he was paid in crack cocaine. Very bad... and a great story. And then there was the Colorado guy who registered himself 35 times. Also true. Also very bad. But the reason you're going to be hearing about these two examples over and over in the offical Republican talking points in the next few days is that that's the best they've got in their hundreds of pages.
Strange enough, reading the very stories they sent often undercut their main argument. For example, that Colorado guy? Here's a line from the article the GOP sent me: "Just because you register someone 35 times, doesn't mean they vote 35 times." Or, here's another one: "Election officials of both parties say that bad registrations do not necessarily translate into election day fraud. New identification laws, as well as signature checks, make ballot box stuffing extremely difficult." Let me repeat: these are quotes from the official Republican vote fraud press packet.
Tora Bora
From KR:
(thanks to Jack)
-
Knight Ridder reporters Barry Schlachter of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram and Jonathan S. Landay and photographers Carl Juste and Peter Andrew Bosch of The Miami Herald were at Tora Bora during the battle, and photographer David Gilkey of the Detroit Free Press and reporter Drew Brown traveled there a year later, interviewed Afghan fighters, retraced al-Qaida escape routes and talked to Pakistani intelligence officers who were tracking al Qaida.
Their reporting found that Franks and other top officials ignored warnings from their own and allied military and intelligence officers that the combination of precision bombing, special operations forces and Afghan forces that had driven the Taliban from northern Afghanistan might not work in the heartland of the country's dominant Pashtun tribe.
While more than 1,200 U.S. Marines sat at an abandoned air base in the desert 80 miles away, Franks and other commanders relied on three Afghan warlords and a small number of American, British and Australian special forces to stop al-Qaida and Taliban fighters from escaping across the mountains into Pakistan.
"We did rely heavily on Afghans because they knew Tora Bora . . . ," Franks wrote.
Military and intelligence officials had warned Franks and others that the two main Afghan commanders, Hazrat Ali and Haji Zaman, couldn't be trusted, and they proved to be correct. They were slow to move their troops into place and didn't attack until four days after American planes began bombing - leaving time for al-Qaida leaders to escape and leaving behind a rear guard of Arab, Chechen and Uzbek fighters.
"Ali and Zaman both assured our people that they had forces in blocking positions on the Spin Ghar (mountains) when there were, in fact, no people there," said a U.S. military official who played a key role in the campaign. "So besides taking Afghans at their word, we had no plans to bring up sufficient forces to make up for perfidy."
U.S. reconnaissance photos showed what appeared to be campfires at high altitudes along the trails across the mountains into Pakistan. The Afghans said the fires belonged to sheep herders. Instead, "they were exfiltrators, pure and simple," said an American military official.
Zaman and Ali began trying to negotiate an al-Qaida surrender even before they began their ground attack. Then, on the second day of the attack, Zaman declared a cease-fire. Ali and a third commander, Haji Zahir, who joined the attack at the last minute, resumed fighting after a few hours, and the U.S. bombing never stopped. But Zaman left open an escape route through the Waziri Tangi valley.
U.S. intelligence analysts estimated that 1,000 to 1,100 al-Qaida fighters, along with some of the group's top leaders, escaped the American dragnet at Tora Bora.
A Pakistani official later told Knight Ridder that intelligence reports suggested that some 4,000 al-Qaida members escaped and that 50 to 80 top leaders paid Zaman or Ali as much as $40,000 apiece for safe passage out of Tora Bora.
(thanks to Jack)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)