Friday, April 11, 2025
Thursday, April 10, 2025
DOGEd
I wonder what the reaction will be if planes carrying some members of Congress really do get DOGEd.
Two American Airlines jet have had a minor collision on the runway at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport - just three months after a deadly crash near there.
The Federal Aviation Administration said the wingtip of one aircraft struck another on Thursday afternoon. At least two members of Congress were aboard one of the jets.
Perfect
Low oil prices AND high gas prices.
BISMARCK, N.D. (AP) — The nearly 2,700-mile Keystone oil pipeline was shut down Tuesday morning after it ruptured in North Dakota, halting the flow of millions of gallons of crude oil from Canada to refineries in the U.S. and potentially leading to higher gasoline prices.
South Bow, a liquid pipeline business that manages the pipeline, said it shut down the pipeline after control center leak detection systems detected a pressure drop in the system. The company estimated that 3,500 barrels of oil were released and said the spill was confined to an agricultural field in a rural area, about 60 miles (97 kilometers) southwest of Fargo.
Can They Both Lose
OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) — OpenAI is suing Elon Musk for unfair competition and interfering with its business relationships with investors and customers, escalating a legal battle between the ChatGPT maker and the billionaire who helped bankroll the artificial intelligence startup a decade ago.
The Bet
I am sure money is on the side of Trump mostly canceling the China tariffs. That might even be correct! But global shipping logistics are expensive and complicated. Firms and shippers are of course reorienting instead of figuring out how to react to 4 more years of this shit.
Morning
Thirsty Thursday. I suppose today the Wall Street geniuses will realize there are still massive tariffs.
Wednesday, April 09, 2025
First Order
They dont't get that the line going down is a second-order effect. What they imagine are second-order effects are actually the first-order ones. They just take a bit longer.
Administration officials knew the markets would dive and other nations would retaliate when President Trump announced his long-promised “reciprocal” tariffs. But when pressed, several senior officials conceded that they had spent only a few days considering how the economic earthquake might have second-order effects.
And officials have yet to describe the strategy for managing a global system of astounding complexity after the initial shock wears off, other than endless threats and negotiations between the leader of the world’s largest economy and everyone else.
On Trump
Bouie:
The fundamental truth of Donald Trump is that he apparently cannot conceive of any relationship between individuals, peoples or states as anything other than a status game, a competition for dominance. His long history of scams, hostile litigation — not to mention his frequent refusal to pay contractors, lawyers, brokers and other people who were working for him — is evidence enough of the reality that a deal with Trump is less an agreement between equals than an opportunity for Trump to abuse and exploit the other party for his own benefit. For Trump, there is no such thing as a mutually beneficial relationship or a positive-sum outcome. In every interaction, no matter how trivial or insignificant, someone has to win and someone has to lose. And Trump, as we all know, is a winner.
"And To The West"
This isn't even really true, but to the extent that it is, "the West" isn't effectively blocking Chinese imports, just us.
Deputy Chief of Staff @StephenM: "I believe that China will be forced, very soon, to come to the table for the simple reason that China's economy is completely dependent on its exports to the United States and to the West... China is now discovering, for the first time, that they… pic.twitter.com/FUy5k5Kefh
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 8, 2025
Sure Why Not
Trump "pausing" most (who knows? I don't think he does at this point) tariffs except China.
90 days, or, like, whatever, man.
...ah it is 10% everywhere else
90 days, or, like, whatever, man.
...ah it is 10% everywhere else
Empty Shelves
Global "just in time" supply chains don't have a lot of wiggle room. Things could get very interesting in ways no one can really predict.
“We’ve halted all shipping plans from the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia,” the employee said. “Every factory order is halted. Anything that hasn’t been loaded will be scrapped, and the cargo already at sea is being re-costed.”
One client had told the company it was abandoning goods already on the water and giving them to the shipping company, as “no one will buy them after the tariffs are imposed”.
The company’s leadership had returned to China to manage a flood of order cancellations and had instructed its staff to suspend all container business until tariffs stabilise or alternative markets are secured.
How Does Anything Work
They have no idea. They didn't even know who their own voters are.
Absent a full financial crisis - which could happen! - "Wall Street" will eventually be fine, it's "Main Street" that's fucked. The line is just a warning sign.
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